Monday, May 23, 2016

Pitching Breakdowns Daily - May 23

Welcome back, to those who have read this before, and welcome to those who haven't! Let's get down to business:

1. Streams of the Day
Only pitchers owned in less than 30% of ESPN leagues are eligible.

I'm going to try something new today. I'm going to give projected ERAs with a completely pseudo-scientific formula:

Pitcher Steamer ERA * (Opponent wRC+ by pitcher handedness / 100) * Park Factor

For park factors, I'm taking the data from ESPN and weighting it as such:

2013: 3
2014: 4
2015: 5
2016: Games played in stadium so far / 9

Ryan Vogelsong (vs COL)
Grade: C+
Projected ERA: 3.32

I typically use team wOBA by pitcher handedness as my primary tool for analyzing easy matchups. But Coors Field changes this calculus - it makes it look as if the Rockies are a tough matchup for RHP (.333 wOBA) when in fact, it's only Coors that is tough; the Rockies lineup owns a poor 89 wRC+ against RHP. So, when they are away from Coors they are actually a good matchup for right-handers. Vogelsong has the benefit of a pitcher's park and a great offense behind him. Plus, Searage is a wizard or something.

2. Vulture Saves Watch
From the Twitter account @VultureSaves (which I operate), updates on possibly unavailable closers and the setup men who could see save opportunities if those closers are rested. I assign football injury report style designations (probable, questionable, doubtful, out) to each closer as well as grades A-F to potential vultures.

1. Addison Reed, NYM
Grade: A
Jeurys Familia has pitched thrre straight, and I'm considering him doubtful. Reed is the clear next in line.

2. Cory Gearrin, SFG
Grade: C
Santiago Casilla has pitched 4 of the last 5 days (he didn't throw Friday) and toes the line between questionable and doubtful. I'm not sure Gearrin is next in line, but closermonkey.com thinks so.

3. Ryan Buchter, SDP
Grade: D
Fernando Rodney pitched back to back, but he is almost certainly available tomorrow.
Don't forget to follow Pitching Breakdowns in Twitter (@PitchBreakdowns)

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