Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Pitching Breakdowns Daily - May 24

Only one feature today, since all closers are expected to be available so there's no Vulture Saves Watch. I hope to atone for that with an article on middle relievers later today.

Streams of the Day
Pitchers must be owned in 30% or less ESPN leagues to qualify.

I'm back with the super-pseudo-scientific ERA projection machine (SPSEP) I introduced yesterday. A reminder on that formula:

Pitcher's Steamer Projected ERA * Opponent wRC+ by pitcher handedness / 100 * Park Factor

For the park factors, I weighted 2013-2016 as follows:

2013: 3
2014: 5
2015: 7
2016: 9 * Games played at stadium / 81

Mike Bolsinger (vs CIN)
Grade: A
SPSEP: 2.33

Yes the Reds have been that woeful against RHP, and Dodgers Stadium has been that great for pitchers the last several years, and Bolsinger is projected decent enough that the super-pseudo-scientific ERA projection machine (which, I might remind you, is super-pseudo-scientific) spit out an amazing 2.33 ERA.

Nathan Karns (vs OAK)
Grade: B
SPSEP: 3.04
All the things I said about Bolsinger apply here as well, but to a lesser extent. Bad hitting opponent. Good park. Decent pitcher.

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